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Benchmarking Forecasting Agents on Yesterday's Tomorrows
摘要
arXiv:2610.40940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Digital agents can now gather and organize information, reason over it, and use tools to complete complex tasks. Forecasting puts all of these abilities to the test: it requires integrating incomplete evidence, inferring causal drivers, and committing to calibrated probabilistic judgments. Existing benchmarks are poorly suited to measuring and improving this ability. Live benchmarks provide feedback only after events resolve, so every evaluation cycle waits on the calendar; fixed-corpus evaluations return results immediately but confine research to pre-collected documents. We introduce FABench, a scalable backtesting environment for Forecasting Agents. An automated pipeline discovers events, generates questions, and resolves outcomes for any past forecast date, so the benchmark can be renewed to stay ahead of model training cutoffs; its first release poses 287 questions across nine domains. Agents research each question freely in an archive environment that combines an offline archive with live web search screened to prevent temporal leakage. Evaluating agents built on eight recent models, we find that retrieval improves the Brier score of all eight in every retrieval setting and lifts the leading agents to the market consensus on the 54 questions linked to Polymarket, with the best three scoring slightly above it. Research traces reveal recurring failures in how agents weigh and apply evidence, leaving ample room for improveme