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Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Customer Churn Prediction in Telecommunications: A Framework for CRM Integration
摘要
arXiv:2608.26151v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Subscriber attrition is a costly, persistent challenge for telecommunications providers, with monthly churn of roughly 1.9% in mature markets eroding billions in revenue annually. Predictive models can flag at-risk customers accurately, yet they are routinely excluded from frontline CRM workflows because high-performing ensemble and non-linear architectures are opaque: a retention specialist cannot design a personalised intervention from a probability score alone, without knowing why a subscriber is at risk. This paper addresses that gap. We benchmark four classifiers--Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM--on the IBM Telco Customer Churn benchmark (7,043 records; 19 features; 26.5% churn, balanced to 50% via SMOTE on the training partition only). Logistic Regression attains the strongest AUC-ROC (0.8411) and LightGBM the highest accuracy (78.42%); all four fall within a 0.011 AUC band (0.831--0.841), and 5-fold cross-validation confirms the leading models are effectively tied. Explanations are delivered at two granularities: a global SHAP ranking identifying tenure, total charges, and month-to-month contract as the dominant churn signals, and instance-level SHAP and LIME decompositions that expose the drivers behind each prediction. Building on these outputs, we introduce a four-layer CRM integration architecture that converts risk scores and attribution vectors into tiered segmentation, maps top features t