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Epistemic Sybil Resistance: Multiplying AI Agents Without Multiplying Evidence
摘要
arXiv:2609.01873v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-agent AI systems improve inference by spawning agents and synthesizing reports. But another agent is not another observation: apparently independent reports may descend from the same evidence, and genuinely independent evidence can produce nearly identical reports. We formalize this as an epistemic Sybil problem. A report Z is an epistemic Sybil extension relative to reports R when I(Theta; Z | R) = 0. No report-only aggregator can generally distinguish replication from independent corroboration: identical reports can warrant different posteriors under unobserved ancestry. A Gaussian shared-root model shows common ancestry does not imply complete redundancy. Repeated extraction adds information toward a source-level ceiling, and correlated extraction errors, which a shared base model can induce among independent agents, lower that ceiling further. We test these predictions with more than 20,000 controlled LLM-agent report and extraction calls on synthetic evidentiary documents. Holding one evidence root fixed while report multiplicity rises from 1 to 32 collapses naive posterior coverage from 0.940 to 0.263. Holding report count fixed while evidence-root multiplicity rises from 1 to 16 closes the gap, and the aggregators are statistically indistinguishable at k = 16. The agent's replicate extraction errors are correlated (gamma_cal = 0.719, estimated out of sample), and a correlated-extraction aggregator restores calibrat